Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment: What does it say about climate risks for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples?

Climate risks are an increasing concern in Australia, especially for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

A recent and important development in this area is the release of Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA Report) in September 2025.¹ The NCRA Report identifies the most significant climate-related threats facing the nation and sets the foundation for the Australian Government’s adaptation strategies.

The NCRA Report’s findings

The NCRA Report identified eight areas of life in Australia (which the Report refers to as 'key systems') that are at risk from the changing climate. These are: 

1. Communities (urban, regional, remote)²
2. Health and social support³
3. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples⁴
4. Natural environment⁵
5. Infrastructure and the built environment⁶
6. Economy, trade, and finance⁷
7. Defence and national security⁸
8. Primary industries and food⁹

These key systems are not isolated and disruptions in one may cascade into others.

Climate risks and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples

The NCRA Report recognised that climate change has the potential to create disproportionate and unique impacts on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples' ways of life, health and wellbeing, food and water security, and economic livelihoods. It also identifies key opportunities for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ involvement in climate risk adaptation. To address climate risks, policy makers must collaborate with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and value the role that their Traditional Knowledge systems play in mitigating climate risks.

The following seven unique risks were identified:¹⁰

1. Risk to self-determination - climate change may erode inclusion in decision-making and undermine people’s ability to pursue economic, social, and cultural development.
2. Risk to land, sea and Country - threats to biodiversity, ecosystems, cultural sites, and connection to Country.
3. Risk to cultural knowledges, practices, values and sites - damage to the landscape and environment undermines the continuation of traditions, practices, and sacred places.
4. Risk to health, well-being and identity - physical and mental health conditions, losses in identity, and displacement from Country.
5. Risk to economic participation and social / cultural economic development - loss of viable livelihoods, decreased opportunities in remote and regional areas.
6. Risk to water and food security - disruption of water flows, ecosystem changes, and infrastructure, as well as cultural ways of life.
7. Risk to remote and rural communities - exposure to infrastructure failures, service disruptions (medical, energy, transport). Isolation compounds vulnerabilities.

The following five opportunities were identified:

1. Support Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ self-determination – empower communities to lead and manage climate responses that impact them.
2. Promote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander governance – through decision-making for environmental and on-Country management.
3. Integrate and value Traditional Knowledges to support climate adaptation – combining Tradition Knowledge systems with Western scientific methods.
4. Enhance health of Country – utilising integrated practices.
5. Build evidence and data – led by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

What does the NCRA Report mean for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities?

Recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ perspectives

The NCRA Report is significant for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples because it means the Australian Government has officially recognised the unique ways climate change impacts their lives, such as through risks to Country, culture, health, community and self-determination. It is also important because it recommends the better integration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people’s perspectives on the changing climate, which is crucial to achieving self-determination.

Informing government policy

The NCRA Report aims to guide government policy and adaptation planning, which could lead to investment in services that reduce climate risks for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. This comes at a time of increasing pressure on the Australian Government to address the impacts of climate change on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Examples of these pressures include:

• The Pabai Case: though ultimately deciding the Commonwealth Government did not owe a duty of care to the people of the Torres Strait Islands to protect them from the impacts of climate change, the Court did acknowledge that climate change is seriously harming culture and tradition in the Torres Strait Islands and concluded that the responsibility to deal with these harms falls on senior government decision-makers.¹¹
• International pressure: there is mounting pressure from the international community. For example, the International Court of Justice recently issued a landmark advisory opinion which stated that governments may breach international law if they do not take actions to prevent climate change.¹²

The NCRA Report and the growing focus on the impact of climate-risks on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples may lead to new policies at the Federal, State and Local government levels, which better support Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples from the physical, cultural, and psychological harms caused by the changing climate.

Need for an eighth climate risk for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples?

With this in mind, from the learnings drawn from our previous research, undertaken in partnership with Bhiamie Williamson and Nell Reidy of National Indigenous Disaster Resilience (NIDR), we believe there is an eighth climate risk for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples that governments should address - the increased risk of interaction with the criminal justice system,¹³ particularly for young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.¹⁴

The seven unique risks to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, identified in the NCRA Report and mentioned above, are commonly known as “risk factors”, which can increase a person’s likelihood of coming into contact with the criminal justice system. These unique risk factors also reflect entrenched disadvantages for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, stemming from colonisation. If these risks are not addressed, they generally worsen over time. Conversely, when these factors are not at risk, they can act as protective factors, which reduce a person’s likelihood of engagement in the criminal justice system.

Examples of how risk factors and protective factors operate and intersect in the context of the criminal justice system:

(a) Risk Factors:

• Disruptions to education can lead to disengagement and poor academic performance, which is known to increase a young person’s chances of coming into contact with the criminal justice system.
• A lack of economic security may lead to mental health issues and even homelessness, which may increase chances of engagement in the criminal justice system.
• Trauma, anxiety, and family stress, increase the likelihood of behavioural issues, substance misuse and ultimately criminal justice system involvement.
• Rural and remote communities face isolation and reduced access to services, which increase the severity of other risk factors.

(b) Protective factors:

• Self-determination enables Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to make decisions about things that impact them, which leads to better outcomes and prevents criminalisation.
• Connection to Country and culture fosters belonging and positive social behaviours, which supports identity and resilience and may reduce a person’s likelihood of contact with the criminal justice system.

Clear parallels can be drawn between the unique climate risks to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, identified in the NCRA Report, and the risk factors and protective factors that may increase or decrease the likelihood of a person engaging with the criminal justice system.

For these reasons, we believe that increased criminalisation is a climate risk, particularly for young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, requiring both further research and adaptation planning with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

This is particularly so in circumstances where the Government’s National Closing the Gap target on reducing the overrepresentation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in the criminal justice system are failing.¹⁵

Consulting with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples on this issue and including it in future iterations of the NCRA Report would better inform government policy and, hopefully, lead to more meaningful reform and better outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

¹ Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, National Climate Risk Assessment 2025 (‘NCRA’) (Report 2nd Pass, 2025).
² Ibid 40-70.
³ Ibid 123-144.
⁴ Ibid 36-39.
⁵ Ibid 173-203.
⁶ Ibid 145-172.
⁷ Ibid 95-22.
⁸ Ibid 227-246.
⁹ Ibid 204-226.
¹⁰ Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Services (ACS) 2025, Climate risks to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples, ACS, Canberra, viewed 2 October 2025, https://www.acs.gov.au/documen....
¹¹ Pabai v Commonwealth of Australia (No 2) [2025] FCA 796, 865.
¹² International Court of Justice, Case concerning Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change (Case No 187).
¹³ Deni Jokovic-Wroe, Leanne Collingburn, Nell Reidy and Bhiamie Williamson, ‘Intersectionality Between Young People, Environmental Disasters and the Criminal Justice System in Australia’ (2025) Frontiers in Human Dynamics.
¹⁴ Ibid.
¹⁵ Australian Productivity Commission, Closing the Gap Data: Annual Data Report (Report, 2025).